Final Vote Simulations for AZ, FL, PA and TX

For each state below, we present four sets of data:

Historic range of Latino share of the vote

Estimates on the racial composition of the electorate can vary widely. We provide a range of estimates on the Latino share of votes cast, pulled from several sources for recent elections in the state:

Current Latino support for Biden

We present both the most recent Equis polling and an average of other recent state polls that break down their results by race/ethnicity or interview Latinos exclusively

Current white support for Biden

We averaged the numbers from all publicly available October polls that break down their results by race/ethnicity.

Simulation results

We held fixed Biden’s current level of Latinx support, as well as his performance with other racial/ethnic minorities in the electorate, to show what level of Latino turnout, as a share of all votes cast, he needs to win the state.

ARIZONA

1. Historic range of Latinx share of the vote

2. Current Latino support for Biden

According to Equis’ most recent poll of registered Latino voters in Arizona (9/24–10/1), the race stands at 65–26, which translates into 71% 2-way support for Biden.

4. Arizona simulation results

If we hold fixed Biden’s current level of Latinx support, as well as his performance with other racial/ethnic minorities in the electorate, what level of Latino turnout, as a share of all votes cast, does he need to win the state?

TEXAS

1. Historic range of Latino share of the vote

2. Current Latino support for Biden

According to Equis’ most recent poll of registered Latino voters in Texas (9/24–10/1), the race stands at 52–31, which translates into 63% 2-way support for Biden.

3. Current white support for Biden

To estimate current white support for Biden, we averaged the numbers from all publicly available October polls that break down their results by race/ethnicity.

4. Texas simulation results

If we hold fixed Biden’s current level of Latinx support (as well as his performance with other racial/ethnic minorities in the electorate) what level of Latinx turnout does he need to win the state?

FLORIDA

1. Historic range of Latino share of the vote

2. Current Latino support for Biden

According to Equis’ most recent poll of registered Latino voters in Florida (9/29–10/4), the race stands at 52–38, which translates into 58% 2-way support for Biden.

3. Current white support for Biden

To estimate current white support for Biden, we averaged the numbers from all publicly available October polls that break down their results by race/ethnicity.

4. Florida simulation results

If we hold fixed Biden’s current level of Latino support (as well as his performance with other racial/ethnic minorities in the electorate) what level of Hispanic turnout, as a share of votes cast, does he need to win the state?

PENNSYLVANIA

1. Historic range of Latino share of the vote

2. Current Latino support for Biden

According to Equis’ most recent poll of registered Latino voters in Pennsylvania (10/1–10/13), the race stands at 68–21, which translates into 76% 2-way support for Biden.

3. Current white support for Biden

To estimate current white support for Biden, we averaged the numbers from all publicly available polls taken in the past two weeks that break down their results by race/ethnicity.

4. Pennsylvania simulation results

If we hold fixed Biden’s current level of Latinx support, as well as his performance with other racial/ethnic minorities in the electorate, what level of Latino turnout share does he need to win the state?

That’s all for now

Our full simulations are available here.

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Equis Research

Equis Research

Creating a better understanding of the Latino electorate