Florida: Background on the LatAm Vote

1. The Latest Data

2. Why the LatAm vote matters (a cheat sheet)

  • We’re talking about a lot of voters in a state decided by notoriously narrow margins. Florida’s Latin American voters represent a large block of nearly 3 million eligible voters (nearly 1 million registered voters). In Florida, any shifts in support among smaller communities can have a large effect.
  • Biden’s path to victory in Florida likely requires him to get around 70% of the LatAm vote. We last polled him around 60%.
  • The Florida GOP has been playing the Hispanic margins game in Florida for a long time. Statewide candidates from Jeb Bush to Rick Scott have won races, in part, through a strategy of picking off votes from Hispanic sub-blocks via catered outreach.
  • The Trump campaign has been following this playbook — most visibly, through its blatant outreach to Venezuelan voters. Biden and Democrats have replicated this strategy of targeting sub-ethnicities, and put their own spin on it.
  • There isn’t much public data about Latin American voters. They are harder to poll: the numbers are smaller, so differences aren’t picked up in a statewide poll, and oversampling them can be quite expensive. Because they don’t make the cut in exit polls, we don’t have much in the way of historic data on voting participation and partisanship. As a result, some of the most critical Hispanic voters in Florida are nearly invisible to political practitioners who aren’t already embedded in these communities.

3. The margins game in practice

A bus bench in Doral, “They make more noise. But there are more of us. #VenezuelansVoteforBiden”
A bus bench in Doral, “They make more noise. But there are more of us. #VenezuelansVoteforBiden”

4. Past results and current polling

Source: Equis analysis of the 2016 Clinton/Trump vote share at the precinct level based on the density of LatAm — or “Other Hispanic” — voters, using BlueLabs modeling appended to the America Votes voter file.

5. Trump’s strategy: red-baiting, neo-fascism

Satire from @sifrizuela reflecting the newly exalted view of Trump in some anti-Maduro corners of Caracas and Doral (a densely Venezuelan city in Miami-Dade County, FL, nicknamed Doralzuela)

6. How to think about the swing in the LatAm vote

7. The Biden opportunity (with a shout-out to to the Mexican vote)

8. Geographic considerations

These maps show the county subdivisions with the highest share of Hispanic voters of various origins — using the only public data available with this level of detail, the 2010 Decennial Census, merely for illustrative purposes.

That’s all for now

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Creating a better understanding of the Latino electorate

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Equis Research

Equis Research

Creating a better understanding of the Latino electorate

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