Latino Vote Simulations in Five States

  • What levels of Latino support and turnout do Democrats need to win in key battleground states?
  • What is the possible impact of shifts in Latino performance?
  • How do we gauge whether Biden is doing “well” or “poorly” with the Latino vote, beyond comparing his current polling to the imperfect marker of 2016 numbers?
  • And lastly: if the high support Biden has recently enjoyed from (non-Latino) white voters were to come back down to earth, what kind of Latino numbers would he need to make up the difference — so that he can work to get them now, before it’s too late?

What this is / what this isn’t

Data on racial composition of the electorate

How to read the tables

Calculating the Two-Way Vote

THE SIMULATIONS

Arizona

Pennsylvania

North Carolina

  • Pink squares indicate scenarios in which our calculations have Biden losing the state regardless of how well he does with Latinos.
  • Blue squares indicate scenarios in which we show Biden winning the state even if he does poorly with Latinos.
  • Green squares indicate scenarios in which the Latino vote is pivotal to determining the outcome of the election.

Nevada

Florida

That’s all for now.

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Creating a better understanding of the Latino electorate

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Equis Research

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Creating a better understanding of the Latino electorate

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