Latino Vote Simulations in Five States

  • What levels of Latino support and turnout do Democrats need to win in key battleground states?
  • What is the possible impact of shifts in Latino performance?
  • How do we gauge whether Biden is doing “well” or “poorly” with the Latino vote, beyond comparing his current polling to the imperfect marker of 2016 numbers?
  • And lastly: if the high support Biden has recently enjoyed from (non-Latino) white voters were to come back down to earth, what kind of Latino numbers would he need to make up the difference — so that he can work to get them now, before it’s too late?

What this is / what this isn’t

Our aim is to identify when and where the Latino vote has the potential to be pivotal to the outcome of the election, to help campaigns and funders make wise resource decisions and to contextualize polling results for other observers.

Data on racial composition of the electorate

Estimates on the racial/ethnic composition of the electorate come from three main sources: exit polling, census data, and analysis of voter file data.

How to read the tables

The tables in this analysis report Biden’s projected share of the two-party vote in different scenarios. Therefore, >50% is a win in the state (green) and <50% is a loss (red).

Calculating the Two-Way Vote

For an apples-to-apples comparison, Democratic support is presented as a “two-way” number, to remove undecided or third party votes.

THE SIMULATIONS

Arizona

Biden needs the Hispanic vote to win in Arizona even in the most optimistic white vote scenarios. Our current polling puts Biden in a fairly strong position, as long as white support remains high. If white support drops back toward Clinton’s 2016 performance, it becomes critical for Biden to push up both Hispanic support and turnout.

Pennsylvania

Our calculations show Biden winning Pennsylvania if he can keep Black voter turnout and white support above Clinton’s 2016 levels, along with a credible level of Hispanic support.

North Carolina

Although the Latino electorate in North Carolina is relatively small, it has the potential to be pivotal under certain conditions. In our simulations, those conditions are a function of two key factors: the level of white support and the Black vote share (assuming that Biden earns a high level of support from Black voters).

  • Pink squares indicate scenarios in which our calculations have Biden losing the state regardless of how well he does with Latinos.
  • Blue squares indicate scenarios in which we show Biden winning the state even if he does poorly with Latinos.
  • Green squares indicate scenarios in which the Latino vote is pivotal to determining the outcome of the election.

Nevada

The Latino vote is critical to a Biden win in Nevada in nearly all scenarios we examined.

Florida

If Biden can do as well with White voters as he was polling during the summer, our simulations show him winning the state regardless of his performance with the Latino vote.

That’s all for now.

Stay tuned for additional state simulations. In the meantime, check out our recent polling at https://www.equisresearch.us/polls or follow us for occasional updates on Twitter.

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Equis Research

Equis Research

Creating a better understanding of the Latino electorate