The Latinx Vote in 2020 (Part II): Growing the Pie

What are likely turnout scenarios in 2020?

Elections are won on the margins. So it is helpful to start by projecting how many Latino voters are expected to show up in 2020, and beginning to consider how many marginal votes can be added beyond that figure.

What states should be the focus of Latino program?

When talking about the Latinx vote, much of the attention is duly paid to the states with the largest share of the population — your Floridas, Nevadas, and Arizonas. The turnout chart above shows where the Latino vote plays the biggest role in statewide results.

Why Latino non-voters are so important

Now that we know what expansion of turnout could look like, we turn to the question of where those votes come from.

Case study: Arizona

Let’s look at how these trends apply to Arizona, as an example.

Moving beyond a mobilization framework

One of the ways we look at the Latinx electorate is in segments based on a combination of vote choice and vote intent. The below chart reflects the combined data from our December wave of polling (minus Florida, which merits a separate write-up), as analyzed by GBAO.

That’s all for now

In future installments, we can talk more about who these ambivalent voters are.



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Equis Research

Equis Research

Creating a better understanding of the Latino electorate